Cyberspace is almost always bigger than we think but big does have its limits. Logic tells us that the environment
known as cyberspace is finite. It can grow but there are always definite numbers or statistics that can be used to
measure its boundaries. To be practical, the boundaries of cyberspace are defined by bandwidth-capacity. Google,
which lives in a world of infinite possibilities doesn't accept the concept of finite gracefully. Faced with the
obvious limitations of growth to the Internet as we know it, Google is doing the most logical thing possible. It
is grabbing more bandwidth-space in order to allow it to expand the current finite boundaries of cyberspace.
In the realm of cyberspace there exists a virtual land that time forgot. It was buried years ago, before the
crash. Cyberspace exists wherever its energy flows. Back in the wild days of the pre-millennial tech-boom, lots
and lots of fiber was laid, likely under a city near you. After the dot-com crash, this network of fiber optic
cable was rendered virtually useless by the sudden absence of anyone with enough cash to access it. The boom
built the backbone but the crash made much of it surplus. Real estate is almost always a good investment,
especially when land gets scarce. Google is said to be buying surplus, pre-laid fiber optic cable wherever it
can. It is also looking for folks who know exactly what to do with it.
In a recent blog post at searchenginelowdown, Andy Beal suggests
Google might be developing a new cyber-network. Yesterday, my colleagues and I were thinking along the same lines.
Andy is known to be a very smart guy and serendipity says this is a good theory to start on.
A New Net?
Google could be creating an alternative Internet. We understand the current Internet environment simply because
for most of us, it is all we know. Aside from the evolving laws of electro-physics, is there anything preventing
a group of young geniuses from dreaming up an alternative Internet after a short game of street-hockey?
There are some interesting factors that support this theory. First and most importantly, the United States
constitutes the world's largest user-market. Now that the majority of that market is accessing the Internet
using a high-speed (broadband) connection, larger file types, like movies, can be downloaded by home-users very
easily. The commercial infrastructure to support legal entertainment distribution is being built at breakneck
speeds, but it comes five years too late. Now the legal distributors are in the unfortunate position of having
to call for a virtual clampdown on illegal file-trading while trying to rebuild their businesses to meet the
real new-economy. This, of course, has threatening implications for Google and the way Google does business.
Another factor is the mounting complaints around AdWords and AdSense. Click-fraud has been noted as a major concern
for businesses. Much of that stems from unscrupulous webmasters finding ways to fool Google into paying them much
more than they deserve. A critical flaw in the AdSense business plan makes Google dependent on a high AdSense
click-through rate. Some analysts have estimated click-fraud to represent 5% or more of Google's billable income.
That is a huge problem that threatens to undermine advertiser confidence in AdWords. As a business model, AdWords
may not be sustainable without a massive overhaul that might generate as much bad PR as it would stabilize
confidence.
The third factor adding credence to the concept of a Google-built alternative universe is the mix of
cool/good-works kind of company Google wishes to be. I actually believe them when they say, "Don't be Evil". I
just don't believe the real world will let them be good all the time. Commercial and legal pressure is quickly
making the Web a much more regulated space. Consumers are starting to realize the extent of behavioral monitoring
that currently happens on the Internet. Now that personal data-mining has become the finest of the rotten sciences,
monitoring of user-behavior happens to virtually everyone. Knowing about consumers is one thing. Using that
knowledge to deliver a universe particular to their desires is quite another. Would it be "evil" of Google to
attempt to do this? Not if you asked them to create a universe for you.
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That universe might be a better space than the current version of the Internet. The net has some significant
problems, the greatest of which is also one of the biggest attractors for young net users. The lack of commercial
broadband access for US consumers led to the development of massive offshore piracy networks. Most people know
someone who has downloaded pirated music or movies. The real root cause for the growth of online piracy was a lack
of commercial infrastructure to allow consumers to get the goods legally. That critical infrastructure is only now
being built and the web is liable to become the massive shopping mall that marketers dream of. I grew up around
shopping malls and in my rebellious adulthood, I simply can't stand them anymore. I think most Net users feel the
same way and vision the Internet as a better place to do commerce than the mall.
What if Internet users wanted something different? William Gibson, the author who popularized the term cyberspace,
wrote of virtual representations of the physical universe that users would enter and virtually exist within. There
are actually models that exist on the Internet aside from gaming communities but consumer home-bandwidth limitations
stifled growth. Now that bandwidth is not the factor it once was, Googlites can really start to think differently.
Just as "Thinking Different" was easier for Apple to say than do, creating different in the current Internet
environment is easier said than done. You need to control the infrastructure. Even if that control means making
sure that nobody really gains control, the creators of something new need to control the basic environment in which
that something evolves in. That's what the unused sections of the backbone might really represent to Google. If
you can't join them comfortably, create another universe. Infinity is possible, but only for the creator.
While user acceptance might slow implementation of an alternative online-network; why not dream of one now,
acquire the infrastructure to facilitate its growth and crank out the code that makes it work. The alpha-test
phases can be run out of the equivalent of several large filing cabinets without disturbing the current Internet
in any way. When conditions are ready for mass-market acceptance, give the people what they tell you they want.
That's not really evil. It is effective long-term planning.
But what if Google is not considering building another universe? There is still a lot that can be done with
that much bandwidth. There are at least two other credible theories that are based on Google stocking up for a
more robust version of the current Internet.
Google's future is based on the continued growth of the commercial Internet and the exploitation of new consumer
applications. Within the next two years, the Internet will become one of the primary conduits of home-entertainment
options. It will also play a larger role in helping time-harried consumers plan their basic-life tasks such as
shopping, bill paying and home maintenance.
Microsoft is extremely interested in home-networking which is one of the reasons I think Longhorn's release has
been so delayed. There is going to be a lot more information to examine in the near future than there is today.
Television can be created on the fly and posted rapidly. World events like music festivals or football matches can
be broadcast to billions. Desperate Housewives can come into our hard-drives anytime we want them too. Miss the
Godfather trilogy? Soon you won't have to hope it is in at the video store. It will always be in stock and crisper
than ever before. The home-entertainment/ life-management phase of the information revolution is about to begin.
Buying surplus fiber optic networks will allow Google to do at least two essential things. First, it lets Google
create full copies of file-types that would make most e-commerce sites look tiny. Secondly, it allows Google to
support tools and applications that require a lot of user-server interaction. Google has access to technologies
that have not been commercially introduced as yet. Some of the stuff they have been treated to, as recently as
last week is virtually unknown to all but the programmers and those who read between the lines of press releases
religiously.
Google is full of sensible geniuses who understand that fiber is an essential part of any diet designed to create
the conditions for market domination. Remember the "size-wars" of previous years? Google needs the added bandwidth
muscle to move files that are simply too big for anyone else. In many ways, this theory makes a bit more sense than
the original theory that Google may be creating an alternative Internet. The Internet is changing and Google is
gearing up to meet new challenges.
A last theory says Google is preparing to become one of the world's largest ISPs. Google is buying fiber in a
number of places and could create an international ISP if it wanted to. This would make sense and would allow
Google nearly unlimited freedom to do whatever it wanted to do with the network it establishes. Distributed
networking, in which Google makes use of users' CPUs when they are not using them may be part of the end-user
agreement for a free Google ISP account. Becoming an ISP might actually save Google a lot of money in the long
run and allow it to emulate the successes of AOL. By harnessing the immense power of unused processors that are
almost always connected to the net, Google might be able to cut the costs associated with running the massive
server-farms that power their search engine. It would also provide the ultimate branding tool and could provide
a stable base for financial growth. In some cases, it would also allow Google to exercise a bit more control over
AdWords/AdSense by providing webmasters with free space to post pages AdSense ads appear.
Becoming an ISP would also make Google a global telecommunications provider. With the expected rise in VOIP
applications, owning bandwidth is going to be tremendously important, much like ownership of telephone or cable
lines is today.
What do you get when you take the world's largest information resource and add the biggest amount of unused but
very real bandwidth-space in existence? I don't really know myself but I can't wait to find out. Whatever emerges,
it will be built on a uniquely powerful foundation.
There is one final finite factor that rules all others and is the one that made the surplus of fiber in the first
place. That factor is money. Right now, Google has lots of money, peaking above $206/share earlier today. I remember
when lots of firms had lots of money. So does Google. They used to be neighbors.
About The Author
Jim Hedger is a writer, speaker and search engine marketing expert based in Victoria BC. Jim works with a limited
group of clients and provides consultancy services to StepForth Search Engine
Placement. He has worked as an SEO for over 5 years and welcomes the opportunity to share his experience through
interviews, articles and speaking engagements. Other articles by Jim Hedger can be found at
StepForth.com.
