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Google Eating Fiber for Optimal Growth
By Jim Hedger, StepForth News Editor,
StepForth Placement Inc., Jan. 19, 2005

Cyberspace is almost always bigger than we think but big does
have its limits. Logic tells us that the environment known as
cyberspace is finite. It can grow but there are always definite
numbers or statistics that can be used to measure its
boundaries. To be practical, the boundaries of cyberspace are
defined by bandwidth-capacity. Google, which lives in a world of
infinite possibilities doesn't accept the concept of finite
gracefully. Faced with the obvious limitations of growth to the
Internet as we know it, Google is doing the most logical thing
possible. It is grabbing more bandwidth-space in order to allow
it to expand the current finite boundaries of cyberspace.

In the realm of cyberspace there exists a virtual land that time
forgot. It was buried years ago, before the crash. Cyberspace
exists wherever its energy flows. Back in the wild days of the
pre-millennial tech-boom, lots and lots of fiber was laid,
likely under a city near you. After the dot-com crash, this
network of fiber optic cable was rendered virtually useless by
the sudden absence of anyone with enough cash to access it. The
boom built the backbone but the crash made much of it surplus.
Real estate is almost always a good investment, especially when
land gets scarce. Google is said to be buying surplus, pre-laid
fiber optic cable wherever it can. It is also looking for folks
who know exactly what to do with it.

In a recent blog post at searchenginelowdown
(http://www.searchenginelowdown.com/), Andy Beal suggests Google
might be developing a new cyber-network. Yesterday, my
colleagues and I were thinking along the same lines. Andy is
known to be a very smart guy and serendipity says this is a good
theory to start on.

A New Net?

Google could be creating an alternative Internet. We understand
the current Internet environment simply because for most of us,
it is all we know. Aside from the evolving laws of
electro-physics, is there anything preventing a group of young
geniuses from dreaming up an alternative Internet after a short
game of street-hockey?

There are some interesting factors that support this theory.
First and most importantly, the United States constitutes the
world's largest user-market. Now that the majority of that
market is accessing the Internet using a high-speed (broadband)
connection, larger file types, like movies, can be downloaded by
home-users very easily. The commercial infrastructure to support
legal entertainment distribution is being built at breakneck
speeds, but it comes five years too late. Now the legal
distributors are in the unfortunate position of having to call
for a virtual clampdown on illegal file-trading while trying to
rebuild their businesses to meet the REAL new-economy. This, of
course, has threatening implications for Google and the way
Google does business.

Another factor is the mounting complaints around AdWords and
AdSense. Click-fraud has been noted as a major concern for
businesses. Much of that stems from unscrupulous webmasters
finding ways to fool Google into paying them much more than they
deserve. A critical flaw in the AdSense business plan makes
Google dependent on a high AdSense click-through rate. Some
analysts have estimated click-fraud to represent 5% or more of
Google's billable income. That is a huge problem that threatens
to undermine advertiser confidence in AdWords. As a business
model, AdWords may not be sustainable without a massive overhaul
that might generate as much bad PR as it would stabilize
confidence.

The third factor adding credence to the concept of a
Google-built alternative universe is the mix of cool/good-works
kind of company Google wishes to be. I actually believe them
when they say, "Don't be Evil". I just don't believe the real
world will let them be good all the time. Commercial and legal
pressure is quickly making the Web a much more regulated space.
Consumers are starting to realize the extent of behavioral
monitoring that currently happens on the Internet. Now that
personal data-mining has become the finest of the rotten
sciences, monitoring of user-behavior happens to virtually
everyone. Knowing about consumers is one thing. Using that
knowledge to deliver a universe particular to their desires is
quite another. Would it be "evil" of Google to attempt to do
this? Not if you asked them to create a universe for you.

That universe might be a better space than the current version
of the Internet. The net has some significant problems, the
greatest of which is also one of the biggest attractors for
young net users. The lack of commercial broadband access for US
consumers led to the development of massive offshore piracy
networks. Most people know someone who has downloaded pirated
music or movies. The real root cause for the growth of online
piracy was a lack of commercial infrastructure to allow
consumers to get the goods legally. That critical infrastructure
is only now being built and the web is liable to become the
massive shopping mall that marketers dream of. I grew up around
shopping malls and in my rebellious adulthood, I simply can't
stand them anymore. I think most Net users feel the same way and
vision the Internet as a better place to do commerce than the
mall.

What if Internet users wanted something different? William
Gibson, the author who popularized the term cyberspace, wrote of
virtual representations of the physical universe that users
would enter and virtually exist within. There are actually
models that exist on the Internet aside from gaming communities
but consumer home-bandwidth limitations stifled growth. Now that
bandwidth is not the factor it once was, Googlites can really
start to think differently.

Just as "Thinking Different" was easier for Apple to say than
do, creating different in the current Internet environment is
easier said than done. You need to control the infrastructure.
Even if that control means making sure that nobody really gains
control, the creators of something new need to control the basic
environment in which that something evolves in. That's what the
unused sections of the backbone might really represent to
Google. If you can't join them comfortably, create another
universe. Infinity is possible, but only for the creator.

While user acceptance might slow implementation of an
alternative online-network; why not dream of one now, acquire
the infrastructure to facilitate its growth and crank out the
code that makes it work. The alpha-test phases can be run out of
the equivalent of several large filing cabinets without
disturbing the current Internet in any way. When conditions are
ready for mass-market acceptance, give the people what they tell
you they want. That's not really evil. It is effective long-term
planning.

But what if Google is not considering building another universe?
There is still a lot that can be done with that much bandwidth.
There are at least two other credible theories that are based on
Google stocking up for a more robust version of the current
Internet.

Google's future is based on the continued growth of the
commercial Internet and the exploitation of new consumer
applications. Within the next two years, the Internet will
become one of the primary conduits of home-entertainment
options. It will also play a larger role in helping time-harried
consumers plan their basic-life tasks such as shopping, bill
paying and home maintenance.

Microsoft is extremely interested in home-networking which is
one of the reasons I think Longhorn's release has been so
delayed. There is going to be a lot more information to examine
in the near future than there is today. Television can be
created on the fly and posted rapidly. World events like music
festivals or football matches can be broadcast to billions.
Desperate Housewives can come into our hard-drives anytime we
want them too. Miss the Godfather trilogy? Soon you won't have
to hope it is in at the video store. It will always be in stock
and crisper than ever before. The home-entertainment/
life-management phase of the information revolution is about to
begin.

Buying surplus fiber optic networks will allow Google to do at
least two essential things. First, it lets Google create full
copies of file-types that would make most e-commerce sites look
tiny. Secondly, it allows Google to support tools and
applications that require a lot of user-server interaction.
Google has access to technologies that have not been
commercially introduced as yet. Some of the stuff they have been
treated to, as recently as last week is virtually unknown to all
but the programmers and those who read between the lines of
press releases religiously.

Google is full of sensible geniuses who understand that fiber is
an essential part of any diet designed to create the conditions
for market domination. Remember the "size-wars" of previous
years? Google needs the added bandwidth muscle to move files
that are simply too big for anyone else. In many ways, this
theory makes a bit more sense than the original theory that
Google may be creating an alternative Internet. The Internet is
changing and Google is gearing up to meet new challenges.

A last theory says Google is preparing to become one of the
world's largest ISPs. Google is buying fiber in a number of
places and could create an international ISP if it wanted to.
This would make sense and would allow Google nearly unlimited
freedom to do whatever it wanted to do with the network it
establishes. Distributed networking, in which Google makes use
of users' CPUs when they are not using them may be part of the
end-user agreement for a free Google ISP account. Becoming an
ISP might actually save Google a lot of money in the long run
and allow it to emulate the successes of AOL. By harnessing the
immense power of unused processors that are almost always
connected to the net, Google might be able to cut the costs
associated with running the massive server-farms that power
their search engine. It would also provide the ultimate branding
tool and could provide a stable base for financial growth. In
some cases, it would also allow Google to exercise a bit more
control over AdWords/AdSense by providing webmasters with free
space to post pages AdSense ads appear.

Becoming an ISP would also make Google a global
telecommunications provider. With the expected rise in VOIP
applications, owning bandwidth is going to be tremendously
important, much like ownership of telephone or cable lines is
today.

What do you get when you take the world's largest information
resource and add the biggest amount of unused but very real
bandwidth-space in existence? I don't really know myself but I
can't wait to find out. Whatever emerges, it will be built on a
uniquely powerful foundation.

There is one final finite factor that rules all others and is
the one that made the surplus of fiber in the first place. That
factor is money. Right now, Google has lots of money, peaking
above $206/share earlier today. I remember when lots of firms
had lots of money. So does Google. They used to be neighbors.

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Jim Hedger is a writer, speaker and search engine marketing
expert based in Victoria BC. Jim works with a limited group of
clients and provides consultancy services to StepForth Search
Engine Placement (http://www.stepforth.com). He has worked as
an SEO for over 5 years and welcomes the opportunity to share
his experience through interviews, articles and speaking
engagements. Other articles by Jim Hedger can be found at
http://news.stepforth.com
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